Weather
Blog
This
blog is a personal perspective on the weather and is updated occasionally
as time permits and potentially interesting weather encourages.
It focuses on longer term weather patterns rather than day to
day forecasts with a special interest in weather likely to bring
about flooding in the Bellinger and Kalang valleys.
As
with the rest of this site please use only as a guide and always
refer to sites such as www.weatherzone.com.au and www.bom.gov.au
for up to the minute information.
14th
June 2010: After a pretty good week just gone it looks
like some more fairly dry weather coming up for the working
week ahead (once the showers clear off today!) Inital signs
are that there could be rain around some time next weekend -
but a long way off yet. If it looks significant I'll update
this blog during the week.
7th
June 2010: Well we ended up with around 60mm here from
the event - nowhere near enough to bring flooding to our area,
particularly after the drier than average start to the year.
Looking fairly dry into the forseeable future with just the
chance of onshore showers if an upper trough coincides with
onshore winds. Most likely time for this is in approx. one week.
Longer term models still show the chance of higher than average
rains through the rest of the year but nothing at all
in short term models to suggest any flooding rains in the near
future :-) I'll next update this blog when there are
indications of potentially significant weather events. For now
I hope you enjoy the glorious winter sunshine!
1st
June 2010: There
is still a reasonable chance of heavy rain hitting the Coffs Coast
later this week. Models are showing falls of up to 150mm - though
this is at the high end of predictions. It looks like rain will
start with showers tomorrow and then ramp up on Thursday before
moving to the south on Friday. If the rain hangs around longer or
is particularly heavy then there is a decent chance of minor flooding;
if it moves down south quickly that risk is much reduced. Current
flood risk for this event: 33%. I'll update again tomorrow
and remember to check out the river heights page on this site for
the latest information.
28th
May 2010:Computer
models are suggesting that there is a chance of and its looking
like it could be shaping up for some reasonable rains for parts
of NE NSW and potentially into SE QLD. EC is pushing totals up to
75mm for parts of NE NSW with GFS now showing totals up to around
100mm close to the coast.
The
rains are likely to come about with a combination of surface high
sitting further to the S than has been the case recently and a decent
upper trough moving up across central Aus and then heading east...Bringing
about a classic east coast dipper with some good rains making it
onshore...Assuming the current scenario stands with the trough remaining
on / close to the coast. The surface winds will be coming in from
the E / NE but will have only a moderate E / NE fetch before hitting
shore so not truly tropical...more like what I guess would be modifed
polar?
Looks
like the trough could hang around for a couple of days before another
upper system starts to move in and the whole lot gets pushed off
into the Tasman. Chance of minor flooding on the Coffs Coast? Currently
20% for the lower bridges - for example the Thora Valley.
19th
March 2010: The
cyclone I first spoke about nearly a week ago is still heading towards
the central QLD coast. Now a lot weaker than it was then, it is
still likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the central
QLD coast. With the cyclone weaker than expected and also further
to the North we are unlikely to see much if any rain down on the
Coffs Coast.
With
beautiful Autumn weather likely for at least the next week (give
or take the odd shower / storm) the chance of any significant rain
here is now down to a very low 5%. Enjoy the sunshine
- I'll post again when we next face the chance of some significant
weather in our region.
17th
March 2010: The
cyclone is still centered in the Coral Sea and has moved little
over the last couple of days. Cat 5 at one time, it is now down
to a still-severe Category 4. Virtually all models now show this
cyclone heading towards the central QLD coast over the weekend.
The
effect of this cyclone in our region is likely to be indirect at
best and is likely to be limited to the potential for some heavy
rain. When the cyclone moves over land it still contains a massive
amount of moisture. What this means is that with that level of moisture
at play there is always the chance of some big falls, even a long
way away from the cyclone itself. At this stage I'll give the chance
of significant rains in our region at 15% - so
at 85% likelyhood that we'll be watching the action unfold to our
North but not experience too much in the way of impact ourselves.
Things
can change quickly so I'll update again within a couple of days
as the event rolls much closer.
13th
March 2010: As
expected the last event gave only localised flooding in our region
- but gave HUGE falls across the inland with both the NT and QLD
recording their wettest days since records began...The river @ Thora
reached Minor Flood Level for a short period of time but for most
people there was little in the way of flooding. Since then onshore
showers have been pushing onto our coast. Accumulations of only
a few mm each day have been common.
The
next potentially significant event is approximately one week away.
A tropical cyclone is currently situated in the Coral Sea and is
likely to move towards the QLD coast in approximately one week.
This cyclone has the potential to interact with a developing upper
trough coming in from the SW to give some significant rains across
the central and SE Qld coasts - with potentially some of it making
its way onto the NE NSW coast. Cyclone movement is very hard to
predict even a couple of days out - but this developing event is
worth watching. Being so far out I'll give the chance of flooding
rains in our region from around the 21st to 25th March a 10%
chance...And will update the blog every couple of days.
Keep tuned!
*****************************
28th
February 2010: The last day of the month and some clarity
on what is likely to happen. A change moving up the NSW coast is
likely to bring some reasonable falls tomorrow. This change is likely
to push the tropical low up across S Qld - and mean that the biggest
falls are likely to be to our North. Result - some rain across our
area but probably nothing to cause too much significant flooding.
Chance of flooding rains over the coming week: I'll now go for
10%
26th
February 2010: As a heavy onshore shower falls onto the
roof outside, the models and satellite images are continuing to
show the potential for some heavy falls over the next week. The
next 48 hours look not too bad with the occasional onshore shower
the worst that can be expected. Beyond that the tropical low currently
sitting over the NT is likely to move to the SE.
Where
it ends up is yet to become clear - but wherever it ends up the
strong onshore flow between the tropical low and a strong high down
south is likely to send SE to NE winds across our area. With an
upper trough to our W there is a decent chance of rain through early
next week. If the tropical low moves across just to our N there
is the likelyhood of some fairly big falls across our area. Chance
of rains likely to cause flooding in our region over the next week?
I'll go for a 33% now...Or a one in three chance
of some flooding. And will update this blog again in a couple of
days - by which point we are moving well into the window of the
short term models, giving us the opportunity to see what totals
they project for our area. See you then!
22nd
February 2010: We have had a much quiter start to 2010
than we did in 2009 - no flood yet which is a relief! The weather
for the next week or so looks fairly benign with some showers and
the chance of a storm as changes pass through and high pressure
systems move into the Tasman.
Beyond
the coming week some models are showing the potential for some more
interesting weather. Two of the key models are showing the opportunity
for significant rainfall in early March but from differing scenarios.
One model shows a tropical low moving SE acros Aus from the NT into
Western NSW with decent upper support across central Australia.
Onshore winds blowing into this upper and surface combination could
offer some good rains across our valleys and hills. Another model
shows a good upper system across E Australia with NE winds feeding
in - a classic heavy rain scenario for us.
Chance
of the projected rains happening: I'll go for around 25%
right now. Would like to see more consistency between the models.
There is enough potential to get my interest but with the lead in
times and inconsistency between models and model runs there is a
lot to come together yet. I'll update later this week when there
should be more clarity on what will happen.
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